Brazilian poultry exporters face uneven market access after a Newcastle disease case in Santa Catarina, as China limits its ban to the state while Mexico blocks specified poultry imports from across Brazil.
Brazil’s Ministério da Agricultura e Pecuária (Mapa) said Oct. 20 that negotiations limited China’s poultry meat ban to Santa Catarina. Exporters in other Brazilian states retain access to that market. Mexico’s Secretaría de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural said its Oct. 19 suspension covers chicken meat, offal, fertile eggs and chicks up to three days old nationwide.
The scope and length of those restrictions will shape the cost to exporters. Santander analysts, whose assessment was reported by Reuters, estimate China buys about 10% of Brazil’s chicken exports. They consider MBRF Global Foods SA more exposed to trade disruption than JBS because JBS operates across more markets. Longer bans could force sellers to find other foreign customers or sell more in Brazil, putting pressure on prices and margins, the analysts said.
A 2024 Newcastle outbreak in neighboring Rio Grande do Sul offers a precedent, though its outcome does not establish what will happen this time. JPMorgan analysts estimated that Brazil’s chicken exports fell 100,000 metric tons, or about 25%, in the month affected by restrictions, according to research reported by Reuters. Exports later recovered, and the analysts saw no material effect on MBRF’s or JBS’ earnings. China’s statewide ban remained in place until January 2026, JPMorgan said.
JPMorgan said several importing countries have since adopted restrictions based on distance from an outbreak site. Reuters reported that MBRF shares fell more than 4% on Oct. 19, while U.S.-traded JBS shares declined 1%.
Mapa confirmed the infection Oct. 18 at a commercial turkey farm in Nova Itaberaba. It plans to cull the flock, disinfect the property and monitor about 133 nearby properties. The ministry plans to update trading partners as its investigation and control measures continue.
