Brazil's retail sales were down -0.8% yoy and -6.6% qoq (annualised rate) in Q1 15, leading to an overall contraction of -5.9% qoq (annualised rate) in private consumption. Given the steep decline in retail sales in April (-3.5% yoy) - the sharpest in 12 years, overall private consumption growth is set to fall further in Q2 15.
In recent quarters, growth in retail sales and private consumption has been flat at best compared even with the normal growth of 6.3% and 3.9% seen during 2012-13 (and compared with cyclical peaks of 8.8% and 5.6% observed in 2010-11). According to Societe Generale, consumption growth would be at -3.7% qoq (at an annualised rate).
