Brazil's IP dropped by 9.5% in third quarter. The industrial production for October month on month basis is expected by the market consensus to decline by -0.1%, while year on year basis is expected at -10.4%.
Recent trade numbers were supportive to manufacturing exports, led by BRL depreciation. Weak domestic demand will continue to play a major role in the IP decline, remaining as a key source of overall contraction in economy currently, while net exports are expected to support growth.
"Given the shape of domestic demand and business sentiment it appears that the pace of contraction probably accelerated early in Q4, leading us to project an IP decline of 12% yoy (-1.6% mom) in October", says Societe Generale in a research note.
