Commentaries over the weekend and last week suggest that there has been another pushback in the triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which would formally mark the beginning of the divorce process. Before last week, it was widely expected that Britain would trigger the Article 50 on 1st January 2017 which could lead to an exit on January 1st, 2019, unless the timeline is extended by unanimous voting by the European Union members. Now, it has been pushed back to April.

The timeline of Brexit will face very big elections throughout the European continent, which would play a major role in defining the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.

• First of such is a Dutch election which would be held in March 2017 and if the opposition right-wing party wins, there could be a UK style referendum.
   
• French general election will be held in April and May, where Right wing Nationalists party led by Marine le Pen could win and that would be decisive for Brexit negations since she is also a backer of an exit.
   
• The German elections are to be held in Autumn next year. Chancellor Merkel is widely expected to win but the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party could pose big challenges.

The Lisbon treaty says that all relations between the European Union and the exiting country would cease to exist two years after the triggering of the Article 50 unless the timetable is extended by unanimous voting. If the timeline is extended, the negotiations would again face big elections issues.

• In June 2019 there is EU parliamentary election and a fresh new assembly would have the power to Veto any Brexit deal.
   
• In 2020, there is UK general election.

Looking at this timetable, it wouldn’t be unfair to assume that the Brexit negotiations path could be a politically turbulent one.