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The referendum effect.
Bank of England (BoE) has been sitting tight on monetary policy and left the rates unchanged for more than seven years now and if the market is predicting it right, the central bank is expected to maintain the status quo for another five years.
In late 2015, the market was pricing that Bank of England (BoE) would hike rates in less than 10 months but when Prime Minister David Cameron announced the referendum date, the expectation shot up to 50 months, only to settle just above 30 months before the referendum result. Post-referendum uncertainty has now pushed that above 62 months. Even the European Central Bank (ECB) which is pursuing asset purchase in the tune of €80 billion per month expected to hike rates before BoE.
The market is now pricing an 80 percent chance that Bank of England (BoE) will cut rates this year, compared to 20 percent chance before the referendum.
The pound is currently trading at 1.344 against the dollar.
