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The CBR has been quite effective in preventing the RUB from strengthening since it reached the 50 mark versus the USD in mid-May.
Indeed, with its daily FX purchasing auctions and the reduction of its FX repos, the CBR has again managed to weaken the RUB, which is good for Russian exports and oil tax revenues (when transferred into local currency).
"The CBR and the Russian authorities in general relatively satisfied with USD-RUB levels between 55-57 and the CBR is likely to cut its policy rate today by 100bp to 11.5%, given forward-looking real rates are still at an un-necessarily high level of around 5%. Analysts still see USD/RUB at around 56 levels in the short-term and expect a slow recovery throughout H2 to levels of around 52 by end-year as the economy and oil prices slowly recover", stats Commerzbank.
The main risk to that scenario is an increase in fighting in eastern Ukraine, which would lead to more US sanctions on Russia, adds Commerzbank.
