Democrats have a 69% chance of winning at least 230 seats in the U.S. House, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said, offering one measure of the party’s prospects in the coming midterms.
Enten’s Oct. 25 analysis put Republicans’ chance of reaching the same threshold at 2%, for a 71% combined chance that either party would win at least 230 seats. The estimate concerns a seat threshold; it does not, by itself, show which party is more likely to control the House.
Democrats’ most likely result in Enten’s analysis rose to 238 seats from 232 in August. The 238 figure is the most likely seat total, while 69% measures the probability of crossing the 230-seat mark.
A separate forecast from Decision Desk HQ, last updated Oct. 26, also projected 238 Democratic seats and gave the party a 79% chance of winning House control. That estimate addresses a different question from Enten’s: whether Democrats would control the chamber, rather than whether they would reach a particular seat count.
An Ipsos poll for Reuters, conducted Oct. 16-19 among 1,679 U.S. adults, found 47% of registered voters would choose a Democratic congressional candidate if voting that day, compared with 35% for a Republican. Cost of living was the leading single factor in deciding how to vote for 47% of registered voters surveyed.
Ipsos reported a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points among all adults and 2.8 points among registered voters. The poll records stated preferences at the time of the survey, while Enten’s and Decision Desk HQ’s figures are forecasts.
