A Center for Responsible Lending (CRL) model estimates that a U.S. renter household with median household income for renters would take 16 years to build starter-home closing cash, twice the revised 2019 timeline.
The Julian Bond Institute for Financial Equity Research, an initiative of CRL, released the analysis Thursday, Oct. 22. For its benchmark, the institute uses four-fifths of the median sale price for existing homes, producing a 2026 starter-home estimate of $335,574. The model puts the amount due at closing at $24,363, including $11,745 for a 3.5% down payment and $12,618 in closing costs.
CRL pairs a median renter household income of $57,991 with $1,525 a year in home savings, or 2.63% of pretax income. It adjusts the national saving rate and assumes 75% of savings is set aside for a home purchase. The down payment reflects the Federal Housing Administration's (FHA) minimum; the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported a 10% median down payment for first-time buyers in a survey covering purchases from July 2024 through June 2025.
CRL's revised calculation puts the 2019 savings period at eight years, with $14,356 needed at closing and an annual savings assumption of $1,693. Its earlier analysis put that timeline at 11 years under different assumptions. The report's benchmark home price rose from $217,520 in 2019 to $335,574 in 2026.
The institute estimates 21 years for a typical Black renter household and 12 years for middle-income renter households. For households headed by frontline workers, including nurses, teachers, police officers and firefighters, the range is 10 to 13 years. CRL President Mike Calhoun told NPR, “Over the last seven years, the time to save up that down payment and closing costs has doubled.”
CRL says renters who cannot rely on family assets face particular barriers. It contrasts their position with that of people who owned homes as the decade began: property values rose, and many owners lowered housing costs by refinancing when mortgage rates were historically low. Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies found that inflation-adjusted median rents increased 30% from 2001 to 2024, while median renter household income rose 9%. In 2024, 22.7 million renter households, or 49%, devoted more than 30% of income to rent and utilities.
A separate Pew Research Center measure puts the home-price-to-income ratio for U.S. households headed by someone under 40 at 3.5 in 2024, up from 2.9 in 2019. Pew said the ratio had reached a similar level only during the mid-2000s housing bubble, peaking at 3.6 in 2006.
CRL's projection keeps the share of income saved steady, assumes income follows home-price growth and gives saved money no investment growth. The calculation ends at the upfront cash threshold; it does not assess mortgage approval or the ability to manage housing costs after purchase. CRL supports zoning changes that allow smaller, lower-cost homes and down-payment help for first-time buyers as part of a wider effort to add starter homes. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to release its next personal saving rate figure Thursday, Oct. 29, a data point relevant to CRL's savings assumption.
