Tonight we get two top tier data releases in Canada: CPI and retail sales. A still-firm, but on-consensus CPI report is expected (RBC: core 2.1%y/y, cons: 2.1%), and considering the BoC seems to be more focused on activity indicators at the moment, that means the retail sales figure is more relevant and likely to get an FX reaction.
The expectations are decently above consensus for retail sales (RBC: ex-auto 1.3%m/m, cons: 0.7%). That implies a CAD positive reaction, but that may only be a small influence compared to the direction of oil prices which have been the most important driver for CAD this week.
RBC Capital Market Says "Our technical strategy team highlights 60.99 and 63.50 as the key levels above for WTI now that the long-held range has broken. For USD/CAD, they point out 1.2114 and 1.2066 as the key levels below, and see resistance located at 1.2253 and 1.2326"
