Canada September sales early tracking suggests that weakness continues

So far, there are only a few of the major cities in Canada and the local real estate boards generally don't seasonally adjust their figures. That adds an extra element of uncertainty since different regions of the country likely experience somewhat different seasonal patterns, hence why no one submits consensus estimates. 

Canada's manufacturing sales print for July should post a solid rise and reinforce an upward trend in activity measures in the current quarter. 

According to Scotia Bank, there are at least two reasons for this. 
 

• One is that new orders picked up in June after prior weakness and this might translate into more product going out the door in July. 
   
• Two is that we already know the export figures for July, and the manufacturing-related categories were very strong but not uniformly so. 

The Greater Toronto Area reported sales up 5.7% y/y but down in August over July as per the seasonal norm. Sales in the Metro Vancouver region climbed by 21.3% y/y in August but were seasonally lower by 15.5% over the prior month. 

"Calgary's market posted a 27% y/y plunge in home sales and early month-to-date tracking for sales in September suggests that the weakness is continuing", notes Scotia Bank.