A sharp gap between Brazil’s official sugar tally and a Reuters-reported figure leaves the scale of the early-October output decline unsettled as futures markets respond to a new rain outlook.
A comparison table published Oct. 28 by Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry lists Center-South sugar production at 2,151,683 metric tons for Oct. 1-15, compared with 2,803,494 metric tons in the same period a year earlier. That is a 23.25% decline.
Reuters reported 1.87 million metric tons and a 27.1% annual drop, also citing ministry data. The ministry’s published table shows a different figure, leaving the reported production totals unreconciled.
Delayed market data from eSignal show the ICE March 2027 Sugar No. 11 contract settled at 19.47 cents per pound on Oct. 29, up 0.13 cent, or 0.67%. The December 2026 Coffee C contract ended at 285.45 cents per pound, or $2.8545, down 1.30 cents, or 0.45%, after touching $2.8080. Reuters described that low as the contract’s lowest since late September.
Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) forecast rain across the Southeast, including Minas Gerais and São Paulo, from Oct. 30 through Nov. 2. Some areas could receive more than 50 millimeters in 24 hours. Reuters linked the sugar advance to rain concerns in Brazil.
Other supply indicators include a European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) forecast for European Union sugar-beet yields 11% below the five-year average after a hot, dry summer. India’s Meteorological Department (IMD) reported June-September rainfall at 87% of the long-period average; its report did not quantify any effect on sugar-cane production.
Archer Financial Services, citing ICE data, reported certified arabica stocks of 222,035 bags on Oct. 28, down 2,787 bags, and 41,961 bags awaiting review, up 5,860. Archer identified the weaker Brazilian real as a potential selling incentive: exporters converting dollar-denominated futures proceeds could receive more local currency.
Rainfall through Nov. 2 is the next near-term indicator for the outlook. The JRC’s next scheduled crop-monitoring bulletin is Nov. 23.
