Central bank of Russia on alert to counter market instability

Global risk aversion and the fall in oil prices have pushed the RUB below 70 per USD. The possibility of a rate hike by the CBR is not ruled out and this has prompted to initiate a 1y cross-currency payer trade at 13.05% targeting a move higher to 16.00%. Corporate borrowers hurt by sanctions face additional burden of $61bn of foreign debt repayments over the next four months (USD buying needs).

The CBR has offered loans to help lighten the cost, alleviating pressure on the RUB. The economy contracted 4.6% yoy in Q2, July CPI edged up to 15.6% from 15.3%. A recent Bloomberg survey shows: 63% of economists expect the CBR will intervene if oil prices fall below $40pbl while 47% see an emergency rate increase.