The China Automobile Dealers Association expects domestic passenger-car retail sales to fall about 22% to 18.5 million vehicles in 2026, even as exports help support manufacturers.
Its forecast calls for domestic retail sales to grow between 0% and 5% in 2027, with 2% as the central estimate. Even at the top of that range, growth would recover only part of the decline projected for 2026.
Overseas shipments have become a larger share of automakers’ business. The association counted 917,000 passenger-car exports in September, including complete vehicles and knock-down kits, up 73.7% from a year earlier. Exports represented 36% of manufacturers’ passenger-car sales that month, compared with 19% a year earlier.
Domestic passenger-car retail sales, meanwhile, fell 28% from a year earlier. The association said exports were supporting manufacturers’ sales and profits, while weak demand at home was putting pressure on dealers. The figures reflect different parts of the market: sales by manufacturers and purchases through domestic retail channels.
The latest industrywide financial figures show weaker profits despite higher revenue. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that auto manufacturing profits fell 22.8% from January through September compared with a year earlier, while revenue rose 2.6%. Those figures cover auto manufacturing as a whole.
The nine-month data update the earlier picture of rising exports and weaker auto profits. From January through August, profits had fallen 16% while revenue had risen 2.9%. The longer reporting period shows a steeper profit decline even as revenue remained above its year-earlier level.
The association cited weaker consumer appetite and other short-term pressures in its 2026 outlook. It said its forecast of 18.5 million domestic passenger-car retail sales in 2026 is below the 19.29 million recorded in 2020. For 2027, its projected growth range remains 0% to 5%.
