China growth momentum likely moderated further in Q1

China will announce Q1-2015 GDP and March growth indices on 15 April. 

Standard Chartered estimates Q1 GDP growth likely slowed to 6.9% y/y from 7.3% in Q4-2014 on the continued housing investment slump, slow profit growth, and the weak domestic and external demand recovery. 

Industrial production likely grew 6.9% y/y in March (6.8% prior) on modest production growth. New orders stayed weak, as indicated by the manufacturing PMI.

Infrastructure investment was likely firm but insufficient to offset the manufacturing and housing investment slowdown. 

"We forecast 13.8% growth in fixed asset investment in Q1. Retail sales growth likely eased to 10.6% y/y from 10.7% in January-February. We expect more policy easing in the coming months - one 25bps policy rate cut, two 50bps RRR cuts, targeted measures and fiscal stimulus", says Standard Chartered in a report on Friday.