China's economy likely to bottom in Q3

China's updated quarterly growth path suggests the economy is expected to bottom in Q3, followed by a modest pick-up in growth momentum by end-2015, supported by accommodative policies. 

"Based on data developments and model estimates, China's 2015 GDP growth is forecasted at 6.6% y/y and 2016 GDP growth is forecasted at 6.0%", says Barclays. 
The service sector including financial services has been growing at a robust pace, 8.2% y/y in H2, versus 7% GDP growth and 6.2% manufacturing growth.

"The GDP tracker based on a group of highfrequency indicators (ie, IP, FAI, PMIs, trade, electricity and steel output, retail and auto sales, etc) suggest Q3 GDP growth could be as low as 5.5% y/y, a further decline from H1 2015 and significantly below the government's targeted 7.0% growth", added Barclays.