Commodity exporter countries would likely need further monetary policy support

The potential pass through of lower commodity prices into inflation and its effect on fiscal outcomes have implied more dovish monetary policy in EMs and tolerance for FX depreciation. This dynamic is likely to continue and intensify in economies in which policy settings provide the scope for easing. 

"Broad USD strength is expected against the broad commodity currency complex in DM a well as in EM, the largest moves versus forwards in TWD and KRW based on the forecasts over the next year", says Barclays.

The fall in commodity prices are likely to invite monetary policy offsets, dovish monetary policy and/or tolerance for FX depreciation, especially in cases in which the pass-through to inflation is high. A simple measure for ranking countries on their commodity price pass through is the weights of food and energy in their CPI basket.