The Conference Board projects 3.2% global growth in 2027, while Middle East disruptions and the scale of U.S. AI investment leave U.S. growth and the wider outlook sensitive to competing forces.
The Board’s October forecast puts global growth at 3% in 2026 and 3.2% in each of 2027 and 2028. At 3%, the Board puts 2026 at its lowest yearly growth rate since 2020.
For 2027, the Board lays out a range of possible growth rates from 3% to 3.4%. Where growth lands depends in part on how long oil and trade disruptions linked to the Middle East continue, as well as the strength of U.S. investment in artificial intelligence.
AI infrastructure spending supports the U.S. economy and Asian exporters that supply technology goods. The gains, however, are concentrated in particular economies and sectors, the Board says, and do not fully counter weaker consumer demand elsewhere.
Conflict-related increases in energy, shipping and insurance costs add to inflationary pressure, according to the outlook. The Board says those costs can also extend restrictive interest-rate conditions.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) offers a separate comparison: its October outlook projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. It forecasts emerging market and developing economies to grow 4.4% in 2027 on its headline measure; its alternative market-exchange-rate-weighted estimate is 4.2%.
The IMF also projects that 32 economies will account for 95% of global growth, compared with 54 economies in its April outlook. The concentration finding was also covered in EconoTimes’ earlier report on the IMF’s October forecasts.
The IMF links differences in countries’ prospects partly to exposure to the Middle East energy shock and their roles in technology supply chains. It says data-center demand supports some Southeast Asian economies, while energy importers with limited ties to technology supply chains face a more difficult outlook. Energy exporters outside the conflict zone may benefit from more favorable terms of trade.
