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If the tactically bearish stance on EM FX continues to unfold there is upside potential in USD-SGD. As shown in the diagram the Singapore dollar has lagged the weakness in regional currencies over the last one month.
On speculation grounds, add longs on near month futures of USD-SGD that has ideal risk-reward qualities:
- The recovery from the lows has only been 1%
- The 200DMA (1.3334) could act as support
- SGD NEER should be trading below, not above, the mid-point given sluggish growth and disinflationary pressures
- The positioning is probably neutral to slightly short dollars after the significant unwinding of positions in the aftermath of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) meeting.
