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Constructive near term risk-reward profile for USD/SGD

If the tactically bearish stance on EM FX continues to unfold there is upside potential in USD-SGD. As shown in the diagram the Singapore dollar has lagged the weakness in regional currencies over the last one month.

On speculation grounds, add longs on near month futures of USD-SGD that has ideal risk-reward qualities:

  • The recovery from the lows has only been 1%

  • The 200DMA (1.3334) could act as support

  • SGD NEER should be trading below, not above, the mid-point given sluggish growth and disinflationary pressures

  • The positioning is probably neutral to slightly short dollars after the significant unwinding of positions in the aftermath of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) meeting.

  • Market Data
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