Currency snapshot (major pairs)

Dollar index trading at 96.46 (+0.21%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro -0.32%, Franc -0.31%, Yen -0.58%, GBP -0.19%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro -0.90%, Franc -1.03%, Yen -1.30%, GBP -0.81%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.132

Trend meter –

• Long term – Range, Medium term – Buy, Short term – Range/ Buy

Support          

• Long term – 1.05, Medium term – 1.08, Short term – 1.11

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.143, Short term – 1.143

Economic release today –

• Retail sales grew by 0.4 percent in May, up 2.6 percent from a year ago.
• Markit services PMI improves to 55.4 in June.

Commentary –

• The Euro is continuing its decline on broad-based recovery in the dollar. Active Call: Buy Euro targeting 1.16

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.291

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Buy, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 1.21, Medium term – 1.24, Short term – 1.263

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.345, Medium term – 1.305, Short term – 1.305

Economic release today –

• Services PMI declines to 53.4 in June.

Commentary –

• The pound is under pressure as PMI numbers wobble. We remain bearish in the pound over a longer horizon.

USD/JPY –           

Trading at 113.6

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – sell, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 107, Medium term – 108.4, Short term – 109

Resistance –

• Long term – 116, Medium term – 114.2, Short term – 111.6 (broken)

Economic release today –

• Markit services PMI improves to 53.3 in June.

Commentary –

• The yen remains the worst performer of the week on monetary policy divergence.

USD/CHF –

Trading at 0.968

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range/Buy, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 0.90, Medium term – 0.92, Short term – 0.95

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.04, Medium term – 1.01, Short term – 0.987

Economic release today –

• NIL.

Commentary –

• Franc is down in line with the euro this week.

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