DHL Forecasts Higher 2026 Operating Profit Despite Global Shipping Disruptions

German logistics giant DHL has projected stronger operating profit for 2026, signaling resilience in the global logistics industry despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and shipping disruptions. The company announced Thursday that it expects earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) to exceed 6.2 billion euros ($7.2 billion) in 2026. This outlook comes after DHL reported 6.1 billion euros in operating profit for the previous year. The company also expects free cash flow, excluding acquisitions, to reach approximately 3 billion euros, aligning with analysts’ consensus forecasts.

DHL’s 2026 profit outlook reflects cautious optimism as the global logistics sector continues to face supply chain challenges, trade tensions, and geopolitical instability. CEO Tobias Meyer acknowledged that uncertainty remains high across international markets. He noted that the company’s forecast assumes no significant improvement in the global economic environment, highlighting ongoing volatility seen in the first months of the year.

The logistics and shipping industry has recently faced increased disruptions in both air freight and ocean shipping routes. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have affected global trade flows, particularly after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor for global energy and cargo transport. The closure forced major global shipping companies such as Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM to reroute vessels around Africa. These diversions have significantly increased transit times, operational costs, and logistical complexity across global supply chains.

Meanwhile, U.S. shipping and delivery giant FedEx recently suspended services in five countries in the region, further underscoring the strain on international logistics networks. These developments have added pressure on freight forwarding operations across the industry.

DHL’s financial results for the fourth quarter also reflected the challenging market conditions. The company reported a 1.3% decline in operating profit to 1.83 billion euros, a figure largely in line with analysts’ expectations. However, the company’s freight forwarding division experienced a notable downturn, with earnings falling 36% amid declining freight rates and softer demand.

Across Europe, logistics companies continue to grapple with weak economic growth, particularly in Germany, as well as shifting trade policies and tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump. According to Meyer, declining freight rates in air and ocean cargo combined with weaker road freight demand in Europe are key factors shaping the current logistics market. Despite these challenges, DHL remains confident that its diversified logistics network and strategic operations will help the company navigate ongoing global supply chain disruptions.