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The July Bank of England MPC meeting took place amid heightened global economic uncertainty relating to Greece and the sharp correction in Chinese equities. The minutes of that meeting, released today, are therefore expected to show a unanimous vote for no policy change. More recent comments from policymakers, however, suggest that the debate has since moved on. In particular, Governor Mark Carney said that the decision to raise UK interest rates "will likely come into sharper relief around the turn of the year".
According to Lloyds Bank, "Looking ahead, we could see the re-emergence of some votes for an immediate rise in interest rates at the August meeting."
The Greek parliament will vote on the second set of reform measures, including the establishment of a €50bn asset fund based on anticipated privatisation proceeds. It has already passed the first set of measures a week ago which were also subsequently ratified by other euro area governments. Greece has been provided with a temporary bridging loan, while the third bailout is being finalised ahead of the next major payment on 20 August on maturing bonds held by the ECB. Relatively minor euro area data releases today include French business confidence and Italian industrial orders and retail sales.
Lloyds Bank says, Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point to 3% tonight, as economic prospects sour on falling dairy prices.
