Daily Economic Outlook: 9th October, 2015

Following somewhat tepid UK manufacturing output data for August, markets will be looking for this morning's August construction and trade figures to provide some reassurance that the momentum of Q3 GDP has not slowed markedly from its 0.7% Q2 print. July saw construction output unexpectedly tumble by 1.0% on the month following a 0.9% rise in June.

Nonetheless, survey-based measures, including the PMI and BoE Agents' scores, indicate that the near-term outlook remains moderately upbeat and a 0.4% pickup on the month is anticipated, says Lloyds Bank. 

A sharp decline in non-EU goods exports underpinned a sharp widening of the trade deficit to £3.4bn in July. While recent survey data suggest that export demand continues to be sluggish, shipments may have been assisted by the fall in trade-weighted sterling towards the end of the month. Consequently, a decline in the deficit to £2.15bn, notes Lloyds Bank. 

Elsewhere, attention will focus largely on speeches by Atlanta and Chicago Fed Presidents Lockhart and Evans respectively. With the latter expected to reiterate his consistently dovish stance towards the timing of  a policy rate hike, markets are likely to pay more heed to Lockhart who is viewed as more representative of the centre of gravity of the FOMC.