Daily outlook for TRY: Commerzbank

Quotes from Commerzbank Corporates & Markets:

-TRY: We expect all three policy rates (repo, lending, borrowing rate) to be cut by 50bps at today's CBT meeting: this will impact TRY only marginally, in our view, since market expectations differ widely, but overall the TRY is likely to remain under pressure.

-The exchange rate is subject to other major forces: 1) Fed policy: lingering concern about a June rate hike still pressures the lira; 2) Politics: the divergence of policy views within the AKP, which used to be more unified until now, is rattling markets, especially as President Erdogan is seen to concentrate all power.

-In fact, if CBT wanted to make the point that it is ignoring political pressure, it would cut only by a token 25bps, and only the repo rate. But in our base-case, CBT will cut by 50bps across the corridor on improving underlying inflation fundamentals. The next level to watch to the upside in USD-TRY is the high seen on February 11 at 2.5150.