Daily outlook for base metals prices

Quotes from Commerzbank Corporates & Markets:

-According to data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), the global lead market was balanced in 2014, as indeed it already had been in the previous year. Supply and demand grew at the same pace, though both at the relatively low rate of 1.4%. In October, the ILZSG had still been anticipating a supply deficit of around 40,000 tons. This year, it so far envisages a deficit of 20,000 tons. The situation on the global zinc market is considerably tighter.

-According to the ILZSG, it showed a supply deficit of 296,000 tons in 2014. The deficit was thus three times as high as in the previous year, primarily on the back of strong demand which had grown by 6.5%. That said, it was somewhat lower than the ILZSG had expected in October, though it looks set to surge again in 2015 and then reach 370,000 tons. In our opinion, the prices of lead and above all of zinc should be well-supported as the year progresses. 

-We see little scope for the aluminium price, on the other hand, for figures released by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) indicate that aluminium production outside China totalled 2.491 million tons in January and thus remained at nearly the same record level as in the previous month. In other words, more than 80,000 tons of aluminium were produced per day for already the third month running. China is also likely to report (record) high production in the next few days, meaning that the global aluminium market remains amply supplied.