Daily outlook for base metals prices

Quotes from Commerzbank Corporates & Markets:

-Base metals: Clearly boosted by the surge in oil prices yesterday evening, all metal prices are gaining this morning. Copper has risen above the $5,900 per ton mark and is now trading at a six-week high. Aluminium has crossed the $1,800 threshold again. According to figures published yesterday by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global aluminium production in January decreased by 1.3% month-on-month to 4.612 million tons.

-This was attributable solely to China, where production fell unexpectedly by 2.8%. The production rate outside China, which had already been reported previously, remained at the previous month's record level. Year-on-year, however, 9.3% more aluminium was produced in China. The sharp expansion in capacities that is planned means that Chinese aluminium production will probably increase significantly this year, which should be reflected in high exports, among other things.

-The expectation of high Chinese exports is also likely to influence the negotiations which began yesterday over the next quarterly premiums in Japan. The solid supply situation and record-high stock levels in Japanese ports point to lower premiums in the second quarter. We see little upside potential for the aluminium price.