New York University finance professor Aswath Damodaran lowered his estimate of Anthropic, PBC’s equity value to $1.45 trillion, putting its growth assumptions under renewed scrutiny before a proposed initial public offering.
Damodaran’s Nov. 3 estimate is down from $1.475 trillion in his Oct. 28 model, which EconoTimes previously reported on. He made the revision after incorporating third-quarter figures. He argues that the central question is whether Anthropic can reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2036. That figure is his assumption, not a company forecast.
His earlier model also assumed a 27.5% target operating margin, a 9.74% cost of capital and $3 in additional revenue for each $1 reinvested. The cost of capital is the rate used to discount projected cash flows.
People who responded to Damodaran’s online valuation exercise generally put Anthropic nearer $1 trillion than $1.5 trillion, he wrote. They chose to participate, so their responses do not represent investors as a whole. Damodaran said his cost-of-capital estimate drew the most prominent specific objection.
Anthropic’s Nov. 2 amended prospectus reported $16.956 billion in revenue and a $567 million operating loss for the three months ended Sept. 30. Compute and infrastructure expenses totaled $9.863 billion. The quarterly figures are unaudited.
Anthropic also disclosed about $895.4 billion in spending commitments covering purchases, leases and arrangements entered into by Sept. 30 or later. Nearly all of that amount relates to compute and infrastructure. About $69.8 billion was due within 12 months of Sept. 30, while termination rights or conditions apply to about $213.8 billion of the total.
At Sept. 30, Anthropic held $95.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $36.3 billion in short-term investments. Much of its revenue depends on customer usage without multiyear purchase commitments, while infrastructure payments extend for years. The filing warns that revenue below expectations could leave the company unable to meet those obligations.
Damodaran assigns Anthropic a 10% probability of failure in his model. He said weaker revenue could also reduce margins and increase that risk, and he cited regulation and governance as further concerns.
Anthropic plans to seek a Nasdaq listing under ANT. Its amended filing leaves the offering’s share count and price range blank.
