Finance professor Aswath Damodaran's $1.475 trillion estimate for Anthropic depends on $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2036, while the company's IPO filing lists large compute commitments but no offer price.
Damodaran, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, sets a 27.5% operating margin after an assumed regulatory burden, $3 in revenue for each dollar reinvested and a 9.74% cost of capital in his base case. He counts the present value of compute commitments as debt and adds $100 billion in assumed IPO cash. That cash is a model input, not a fundraising target disclosed by Anthropic.
His scenarios range from negative $373 billion in equity value to $4.04 trillion. The low case assumes $200 billion in revenue by 2036, a 10% margin, scarce and expensive computing and a 9.88% cost of capital. The high case assumes $1.5 trillion in revenue, a 40% margin, cheaper computing and a 7.79% cost of capital. These are model scenarios, not company forecasts. Damodaran expects Anthropic's story to keep changing after trading starts, adding that “it will be a roller coaster.”
Anthropic's Oct. 26 Form S-1 reports $16.3 billion in revenue for January through June 2026, compared with $1.2 billion in the same period a year earlier. The company recorded a $693 million operating loss and an $80.748 billion net loss. A $72.388 billion expense from fair-value changes in convertible notes, derivative liabilities and simple agreements for future equity (SAFEs) accounted for much of the net loss.
Compute and infrastructure expenses reached $8.945 billion, or 55% of first-half revenue. As of June 30, Anthropic had about $265.6 billion in expected future fixed or minimum-guaranteed payments under those agreements, whose terms range from one to 20 years. The company says some deals require payment for capacity even when it goes unused.
Reuters reported that some current and prospective investors had discussed a valuation near $1.5 trillion, down from about $2 trillion a week earlier. The Associated Press also reported a potential range of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion and said no final valuation had been set. EconoTimes previously covered reported investor valuation discussions; those reports do not establish the offering price.
The S-1 leaves the share count and price blank. It contemplates a sale of Class A shares by Anthropic and allows existing stockholders to offer additional shares, from which the company would receive no proceeds. The filing says the sale is expected to proceed after the registration statement becomes effective.
