Divergent pattern to continue in Indian monsoons next week

India's rainfall conditions have continued to improve on a cumulative basis, but have diverged in terms of regional distribution. Cumulative rainfall between 1 June and 30 July was 4% below normal, improving significantly from the 7% shortfall last week. 

This was driven by a 21% surplus in rainfall, though this was concentrated in eight provinces, which experienced high rainfall levels. Indeed, the geographic distribution has marginally deteriorated, with 23 out of 36 regions now reporting normal rainfall conditions, and another 8 close to normal levels. 

July is running 15% below normal, after June recorded rainfall that was 19% above normal. Within the regions, North West (+12%) and Central India (-2%) have close to normal rainfall, while the South (-19%) and East (-9%) have large shortfalls. The upcoming week may see this divergent pattern continue, as Eastern India is expected to have cyclonic storms, particularly in Bengal and Odisha.

"Close to the halfway mark, the next four weeks usually account for ~27% of total seasonal rainfall, before the rains taper off. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) will be updating its forecasts for the final time in the next few days, and will likely indicate rainfalls to be better than its existing projection of this season being about 88% of the long-period rainfall average. Overall sowing activity for food remains robust, and is up ~26% relative to 2014, as of 24 July, with strong increases in pulses (~50%) and oilseeds (~32%)", says Barclays.