Dollar Crumbles on Dovish Fed Bets – USD/CHF Eyes 0.7865 Next

USDCHF is consolidating after forming a bottom around 0.79917.  Currently trading at 0.80051, it reached an intraday high of 0.80163.

As markets increase wagers to 85–88% for a 25 bps Fed rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has plummeted to a five-week low near 99, ending a ten-day losing streak and a practically 9% YTD loss. Soft-than-expected manufacturing PMI, slowing labor data, and declining inflation risks have persuaded investors that easing is close, thereby weakening the yield edge of the dollar, depressing Treasury yields, and spurring global risk appetite. The result: EUR/USD at seven-week highs, fresh yen strength, and increasing discussion that DXY could test the 98-99 zone unless forthcoming data delivers a hawkish surprise.US initial jobless claims for the week ended November 29, 2025, published today at 1:30 PM GMT, fell 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 191,000 from the prior week's modified 218,000, the lowest since September 2022 and surpassing projected 220,000.

Technical Analysis Points to Further Bullishness

The pair is trading below the 55-EMA, the 200-EMA, and the 365-EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish trend. The immediate resistance is at  0.8020; any break above targets  0.8060/0.8105/0.8150/0.82180.

Support Levels and Potential Declines

On the downside, near-term support is around 0.7990; any violation below will drag the pair to 0.7965/ 0.7920/0.7865/0.7800.

Indicators (4-hour chart)

CCI (50) - Bearish

Directional Movement Index -  Bearish

Trading Strategy Recommendation

It is good to sell on rallies around 0.8020-225 with SL around 0.8060 for a TP of 0.7900/0.7865.