Trump and Iran Sign Framework Peace Deal in France Amid Ongoing Middle East Tensions 
Trump Questions USMCA Renewal as Trade Talks Continue 
US Stock Futures Slip After Wall Street Rally Fueled by US-Iran Deal and Chipmaker Surge 
Asian Stocks Rally as Japan and South Korea Reach Record Highs on US-Iran Peace Deal 
Asian Stocks Advance as Nikkei Nears Record High Ahead of Fed Decision 
BOJ Signals More Rate Hikes as Inflation Risks Rise Amid Energy Price Pressures 
Italy’s Economy Outpaces Eurozone Peers as Investment Spending Fuels Growth 
Canada Imposes 10% Tariff on Canned Vegetable Imports to Protect Domestic Industry 
Dollar Surges After Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Potential Tightening Ahead 
Oil Prices Slide as U.S.-Iran Deal and Hormuz Reopening Ease Supply Concerns 
Dollar Hits One-Month High as Hawkish Fed Outlook Boosts Greenback 
Oil Prices Drop as U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Eases Supply Concerns 
Japan Signals Readiness to Intervene as USD/JPY Nears 161 Amid Yen Weakness 
Asian Currencies Stabilize as Dollar Holds Near Two-Month High After Fed Hawkish Signal 
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Policy Overhaul as Hawkish Rate Outlook Rattles Markets 
German Industry Employment Falls to Lowest Level in a Decade 
Canada, British Columbia Launch $5 Billion Infrastructure Partnership to Boost Housing, Transit, and Healthcare 
The U.S. dollar retreated from multi-month highs this week as surging energy prices, triggered by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military conflict with Iran, dramatically shifted global interest rate forecasts. The greenback is now under pressure as major central banks signal rate hikes while the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious, wait-and-see stance.
Since the conflict began in late February, Brent crude futures have surged nearly 50%, effectively choking off Middle Eastern energy exports and stoking inflation fears worldwide. Investors who once anticipated two Fed rate cuts in 2025 now consider even a single cut unlikely, leaving the dollar vulnerable against competing currencies.
The euro climbed 1.4% for the week to $1.1569, sterling rose over 1.5% to $1.3422, and the Japanese yen strengthened to around 157.88, gaining 1.2%. The Australian dollar also approached 71 cents, up 1.5% weekly, after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for the second consecutive month. The Swiss franc similarly posted weekly gains against the dollar.
The European Central Bank held rates steady but strongly hinted at potential hikes as early as June, citing energy-driven inflation. The Bank of England echoed this hawkish tone, triggering one of the sharpest selloffs in short-dated gilts in recent memory, with markets now pricing in roughly 80 basis points of increases by year-end. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan left the door open to hiking as soon as April, catching yen bears off guard.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged uncertainty around the war's economic impact but offered no clear forward guidance, reinforcing the contrast with other central banks.
The dollar index slipped to 99.359, heading for a 1.1% weekly loss. Analysts warn, however, that a prolonged dollar decline is unlikely. As one strategist noted, a drawn-out conflict could ultimately boost the dollar through safe-haven demand and the United States' advantage as an energy-exporting nation.
