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ECB worried about EMs

Two more important ECB representatives, this time Benoit Coeure and Peter Praet, voiced their concerns about the weak growth of the EMs, and the implications of that for the euro zone. The ECB remains very sensitive. 

That means two things according to Commerzbank

  • (1) The euro increasingly turns into a currency whose exchange rate is likely to fluctuate in line with the EM currencies. It was just an episode that it behaved like a safe haven. 

  • (2) Regardless of what the development in the EMs will look like in the near future the ECB is likely to be more sensitive than the Fed. 

The Greek elections took place and produced a clearer result than had been expected. That does not seem to affect the euro though. The exchange rate certainly did not react to the news during today's Asian trading session. And indeed the outcome is difficult to interpret. 

"Some commentators celebrate the result as a confirmation of the austerity measures on the part of the Greek electorate. Many see the exact opposite. How Greece overcomes these fiscal problems may not be relevant for the euro exchange rate medium to long term, but how Europe deals with these issues may well be", says Commerzbank. 

However, yesterday's election really did not provide any new insights into the latter question. That can be only got if the politicians of a now to be formed Greek government were to break the spirit or the letter of the new aid programme.

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