EIA expects oil to be $5-$15, does it make sense?

US government's energy agency EIA has warned on Tuesday that a successful Iran deal could lead oil prices to $5-$15.

How realistic is the estimate?

• In 2011 Iran was exporting around 2.5 million barrels per day which saw dramatic drop of around 50% since then over the sanctions.
  
  
• Even if the sanctions are removed by final accord in June between Iran and world powers, it would take years to completely unwind the complex web of sanctions and Iran to reach beyond its former capacity.

Some part of the argument seems to make sense.

• Iran will be able to add more than half a million barrels per day in export within months. Estimates range between 0.5-0.75 million barrels/ day increase. However returning to full capacity might take years.
  
  
• Iran also reported to have around 30 million barrels in storage, that if released has the ability to push prices pretty deep. However that seems unlikely given the crude price.

Iran first will have to gain back the customers it has lost over the sanctions and might have to offer discounts. Aggressive pricing wars would put overall pressure on crude prices.

$5-15 still unlikely -

Estimates tend to get to extreme when price large or longer directional move. EIA seems to be not out of that bias. These estimates were far away even last year.

• One of lowest cost oil producer is Saudi Arabia, whose cost of production still hovers around $20/ barrel. At EIA estimated price, supply would really get choked.

However price might get to the estimated level, should US waves off the export ban completely and joins in.

Brent is trading at $58.2/barrel, down 0.55% toady so far.