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European carmakers facing mounting pressure from U.S. tariffs and intense price competition in China are set to gain modest relief from a landmark EU-India trade deal that significantly reduces import duties on cars. The agreement, expected to be signed Tuesday, will cut tariffs on EU-made car imports to 40% from levels as high as 110%, marking India’s most substantial opening yet to brands such as Volkswagen, Renault, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche and Audi.
While the tariff reduction is a positive step, analysts caution that it is far from a game changer. India’s car market remains fiercely competitive and heavily dominated by domestic manufacturers Tata Motors and Mahindra, along with Asian giants Suzuki Motor and Hyundai. Together, these players control roughly two-thirds of the market, while European carmakers account for less than 3%, according to Indian automobile industry data.
India is currently the world’s third-largest car market after the United States and China, with annual sales of around 4.4 million vehicles. The market is expected to expand by more than a third to nearly 6 million vehicles by 2030, making it increasingly attractive for global automakers searching for new growth engines. However, success in India has historically favored brands offering affordable, reliable and compact vehicles, including popular kei-style models like the Maruti Suzuki Wagon R.
Industry experts note that European manufacturers have traditionally focused on premium and luxury segments, which limits volume potential. Still, the tariff cuts could make imported luxury cars more price-competitive, particularly for brands such as Porsche that rely heavily on completely built unit imports. Over time, tariffs on certain EU cars priced above €15,000 may fall as low as 10%, further improving market access.
Automakers such as Volkswagen Group have described India as strategically important and are assessing the business impact of the deal. Analysts suggest that while short-term gains may be modest, the agreement could encourage increased local manufacturing and deeper market penetration in the medium term. As global auto markets evolve, India’s growing demand positions it as a critical opportunity for European carmakers willing to adapt to local preferences and pricing realities.
