EUR/USD Dips on Trade Deal Jitters: Bears Target 1.16 as Negotiations Continue

EUR/USD pared some of its gains on trade uncertainty. It hits an intraday high of 1.17645  and is currently trading around 1.17398. Overall trend remains bearish as long as resistance 1.18295 holds.

Optimism thrives for a potential EU-US trade agreement as both sides step up talks to prevent significant US tariffs set for August 1, 2025. The US has postponed its first July 9 tariff deadline to allow more time for negotiation, and the European Union has signaled a willingness to relax its posture to help reach an agreement. Key contributors to this optimism are active high-level engagement between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump, progress toward a framework agreement with intense efforts from both technical and political teams, and mutual flexibility demonstrated by the EU's willingness to accept a baseline 10% US tariff on numerous exports while pursuing concessions for sensitive sectors. Negotiators and officials are hopeful for a tentative deal before the August 1 deadline despite continuing disagreements on sector-specific tariffs and digital regulations, which indicates a shared will to avoid a tariff rise.

The pair is holding below above 55 EMA,200 EMA, and 365 EMA in the 15 min chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.1800; a break above this may push the pair to targets of  1.1835/1.19090/1.1956/1.200.  Major bullish momentum is likely only if prices can break above the 1.200 target and 1.2100. On the downside, support is seen at 1.17200; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1680/1.1660/1.1600.

Market Indicators and Trading Strategy

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)-  Bearish

Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Bearish

 It is good to sell on rallies around 1.17438-40 with a stop-loss at 1.1765 for a  target price of 1.1600.