EUR: monetary policies vs. Greece

The Greek Referendum will drive headlines for the near-term. It is believed that divergence of monetary policies is a more powerful EUR driver than Greek risks. 

In this context, the timing of the first Fed rate hike and the ECB's tone (the market misread the ECB's message to get used to volatility) are more important for the euro than Greek headlines. 

Whilst Greek headlines and deadlines are clearly urgent, and the market implications both important and not priced in the short-run, ultimately the evolution of monetary policy is more important. 

"We remain bearish EUR/USD, but the uncertainty around the Fed is not bolstering our conviction levels",says BofAML Research.