EURUSD: ADP Jobs Bomb Drops – Sell the Rally, Target 1.1400
EUR/USD declined slightly after upbeat US jobs data. It hits an intraday low of 1.14760 and is currently trading around 1.14824. Intraday trend remains bearish as long as resistance 1.1540 holds.
October's ADP Employment Change jumped to +42,000 private jobs—crushing the +25K-30K consensus and reversing September's revised -29K flop into a first positive print since July, driven by +47K in Trade/Transportation/Utilities and +26K in Education/Health, though Information (-17K) and Professional Services (-15K) pulled. For stayers, wage growth held consistent at 4.5% YoY; for switchers, it was 6.7%; this indicated balanced labor dynamics per ADP's Nela Richardson, who described the little rebound as a sign of resilience in the face of the data drought brought about by the U.S. government shutdown. As the only BLS stand-in, this beat could stabilize Fed cut bets, boost consumer spending, and suggest a labor floor following two downward months.
The pair is holding below the 55 EMA, 200 EMA, and 365 EMA in the 4-hour chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.15450; a break above this may push the pair to targets of 1.1575/1.1600/1.1670/1.1700/1.1765/1800/1.1835/1.1850/1.1920. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1460; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1435/1.1400.
Market Indicators and Trading Strategy
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)- Bearish
Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Neutral
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.1500 with a stop-loss at 1.1545 for a target price of 1.1435/1.1400.
