Energy Surge Ignites US Inflation: USDCHF Eyes Support Amid Dollar Sell-Off

USDCHF pared most of its gains on board-based US dollar selling. Having made an intraday low of 0.78544, it is currently trading at 0.78960.

Driven by a steep 10.9% monthly increase in energy costs—mostly a 21.2% rise in gasoline in the face of Middle East tensions stemming from the Iran-US-Israel conflict—today's US CPI release for March 2026 revealed headline inflation ascending to 3.3% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in February and in line with economist predictions. The monthly all-items CPI surged by 0.9%, the biggest surge since 2022, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) saw a modest increase of 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually, barely up from the previous levels but still below the predicted consensus. Shelter costs rose 0.3%, food was flat, and declines in medical care and used cars provided some offset, suggesting continued but not widespread inflationary pressures that could affect Fed policy under President Trump.

Technical Analysis Points to Further Bullishness

The pair is trading above the 55-EMA, 200-EMA, and 365-EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bullish trend. The immediate resistance is at  0.7965, any break above targets 0.8000/0.8040/0.8090/0.81250/0.8150.

Support Levels and Potential Declines

On the downside, near-term support is around 0.7865; any violation below will drag the pair to 0.7800/0.7765/0.7000/0.7660/0.7628.

Indicators (4-hour chart)

CCI (50) - Bearish

Directional Movement Index -  Bearish

Trading Strategy Recommendation

It is good to sell on rallies around 0.7948-50 with SL around 0.8000 for a TP of 0.7800.