Euro area IP growth to post at 1.5% yoy with strength from Germany and France

National data, accounting for around 90% of global euro area industrial production growth, will become available next week. Taking into account the forecasts for Germany, France, Italy and Spain and assuming that the other countries' industrial production grew at the same pace as the the average of the last twelve months, a 0.1% mom increase in industrial production for June is expected (1.5% yoy w.d.a). 

"We forecast increases in IP in June for Germany and France (both by 0.4% mom). On the other hand, we expect Italy's industrial production to remain flat in June (0.0% mom), and Spain's to decrease by 0.7%," says Societe Generale.

Therefore in June, Germany and France should be the main contributors to positive growth, while Spain should be the main countries inducing weakness.