Euro area GDP is likely to grow by 0.5% qoq in Q1 2015, notes Societe Generale. This would represent 1.9% qoq at annualised rate, significantly higher than euro area GDP potential (1.0%). This cyclical recovery would be boosted by a strong performance in Spain, and a firm growth rate in Germany (0.6% qoq) and France (0.4% qoq). Italy is expected to get out of the recession territory (-0.2% qoq).
The breakdown by expenditures will not be available yet but consumption is likely to be the main engine of growth, whereas investment and net exports should disappoint.
"Looking ahead, the remaining domestic headwinds (policy uncertainty including Grexit risk, debt burdens), geopolitical tensions and lower economic multipliers than in the past are likely to cap the cyclical recovery coming from the positives (lower oil prices, weaker euro, lower interest rates Etc.)", added Societe Generale.
Hence, economic activity is likely to grow by 1.5% in 2015 and hover around this rate in the coming years.
