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Market Roundup
• US ADP Employment Change Weekly 20.00K, 16.30K previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 7.6%, 8.5% previous
•US Richmond Manufacturing Index (Sep) -2, 2 forecast, 4 previous
•US Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Sep) -5, 11 previous
•US Richmond Services Index (Sep) 0, -8 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (Sep) -16.5, -16.0 forecast, -15.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•23:00 Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 52.0 previous
•23:00 Australia Manufacturing & Services PMI (Sep) 52.70 previous
•23:00 Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (Sep) 53.2 previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Tuesday as investors monitored developments in U.S.-Iran tensions and assessed their potential impact on markets and oil prices.Speaking at the U.N. General Assembly, U.S. President Donald Trump called for Iran’s complete economic isolation, signaling no immediate intention to resume talks. However, he said a deal could potentially be reached after the November U.S. midterm elections. His comments came just days after he suggested he could meet with his Iranian counterpart.The conflict with Iran has faced opposition in the United States, while Trump’s approval rating has declined amid persistent inflation pressures on American households. Meanwhile, hopes for diplomatic progress and reports that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days helped push oil prices to two-week lows, easing some concerns over global energy supplies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1479(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1564(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1434(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1355(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped on Tuesday as investors weighed the possibility of more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Comments from Fed officials in the wake of its policy decision have also flagged the possibility of more rate increases if inflation does not cool.Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins wrote on Tuesday in a LinkedIn post that she supported last week’s central bank interest rate increase amid the risks that future inflation will be above its 2% target.Separately, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said economic conditions in the US may be firming, and inflation pressures are coming from more than just higher energy costs and tariff effects. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3399(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3478(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3321(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards1.3284(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar fell to a nearly seven-week low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as the yield gap between the two countries widened further, overshadowing a more hawkish tone from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.The Canadian two-year government bond yield fell 2.4 basis points further below its U.S. counterpart, widening the spread to around 148 basis points in favor of the U.S. note. That marked the widest differential since March 2025 and continued to weigh on the Canadian dollar.Markets are pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a Bank of Canada rate hike in October. Macklem said on Monday that policymakers must balance weaker economic growth from new U.S. tariffs, which could put downward pressure on inflation, against the risk that the Middle East conflict could drive oil prices higher and add to inflationary pressures. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3080(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3103(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3995(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3923(Aug 7th low).
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar firmed against yen on Tuesday as traders bet that the Bank of Japan would struggle to match the hawkish policy shift seen at other major central banks. Traders were weighing whether the Bank of Japan would raise rates quickly enough to narrow the gap with its global peers.Despite the BOJ's rate hike last week, the Japanese currency has been under pressure. Investors view the dissent from two policymakers, who pushed for a more cautious pace, as a warning that additional hikes may be harder to implement. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.03% to 157.41 and was on pace for its third straight daily gain .Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.08(Sep 18th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.58(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.85(SMA20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.20 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European equities edged up on Tuesday as investors watched U.S.-Iran developments that could influence crude prices and market risk appetite.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.29 percent, Germany's Dax ended up 0.02 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.20 percent.
The Nasdaq sailed to a new a high on Tuesday, lifted by a wave of positive momentum around the AI outlook and another decline in global oil prices,
Dow Jones closed down by 0.36% percent, S&P 500 closed flat 0.00 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.45% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as markets priced in a more restrictive Fed policy outlook, while traders monitored developments in the Middle East.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,336.21 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. ET (1740 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.2% lower at $4,376.40.
Oil prices eased on Tuesday amid rising Saudi crude flows following the restart of the East-West pipeline and increased vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Brent crude futures for the November contract settled at $99.25 a barrel, down $1.09, or 1.09%.
The WTI October contract, which expires on Tuesday, finished at $94.99 a barrel, down $1.19, or 1.24%.
