Market Roundup
• HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 50.2, 49.4 forecast, 50.1 previous.
• HCOB France Services PMI (Mar): 48.3, 49.2 forecast, 49.6 previous.
• HCOB France Composite PMI (Mar): 48.3, 49.9 previous.
• HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 51.7, 49.6 forecast, 50.9 previous.
• HCOB Germany Services PMI (Mar): 51.2, 52.5 forecast, 53.5 previous.
• HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Mar): 51.9, 51.8 forecast, 53.2 previous.
• HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 51.4, 49.4 forecast, 50.8 previous.
• HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Mar): 50.1, 51.1 forecast, 51.9 previous.
• HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Mar): 50.5, 51.0 forecast, 51.9 previous.
• UK S&P Global Services PMI (Mar): 51.2, 52.8 forecast, 53.9 previous.
• UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar): 51.0, 52.8 forecast, 53.7 previous.
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 51.4, 50.0 forecast, 51.7 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 51.5 forecast,51.6 previous.
•13:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) 52.0 forecast,51.7 previous.
•13:45 S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar) 51.9 previous.
•14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index (Mar) -8 forecast,-10 previous.
•14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Mar) -13 previous.
•14:00 US Richmond Services Index (Mar) -8 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•15:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•15:45 EU ECB's Lane Speaks
•17:00 SNB Vice Chairman Schlegel Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against dollar on Tuesday as investors remained doubtful the war in the Middle East could be quickly resolved, even though U.S. President Donald Trump delayed the bombing of Iranian power stations and energy infrastructure.Trump on Monday said that the U.S. and Iran had held "very good and productive" conversations about a "complete and total resolution of hostilities in the Middle East". Iran denied it had engaged in any direct negotiations.Survey data on Friday showed early signs that the war was starting to impact the global economy. Business activity in the euro zone and Britain fell to multi-month lows, suggesting Europe was already suffering economically from the conflict.The euro was last down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.1593 after gaining 0.4% in the previous trading session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1615(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1653 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1541(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1487(March 23rd low).
GBP/USD: The British pound fell against the dollar on Tuesday, reversing some of its rise from the day before, as the Middle East war continues to hold sway over markets and as signs emerged that the conflict was starting to affect Britain's economy.Iran denied it had engaged in any direct negotiations, calling Trump's comments "fake news", which has put a cap on the pound's rebound against the dollar.British business activity grew at the slowest pace in six months in March, a survey showed on Tuesday, one of the first signs that war in the Middle East was having an impact on the British economy.Price pressures also showed signs of increasing, with manufacturers' input costs seeing the biggest month-on-month acceleration since 1992. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3458(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3547(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3384(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3295(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Tuesday as the ongoing Middle East war dampened risk sentiment, even as easing hopes lingered. U.S. President Donald Trump delayed the bombing of Iran's power grid, a move that allayed fear of a prolonged war in the Middle East. A survey showed Australia's consumer confidence slid to its lowest level in more than half a century last week as rising borrowing costs and a spike in petrol prices darkened the economic outlook. Markets now believe a rate hike in May from the Reserve Bank of Australia is a toss-up after two consecutive rises this year. About 65 bps of tightening is priced in for the rest of 2026.Focus shifts to Wednesday’s Australia inflation report for guidance on monetary policy as geopolitical tensions persist. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7012(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7064(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6893(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The US dollar edged higher on Tuesday as Japanese yen weakened as Japan's soft National CPI print tempers BoJ rate hike bets.Japan’s core inflation fell below the 2% target in February for the first time in nearly four years, as fuel subsidies offset higher import costs from a weak yen and rising oil prices. Core-core inflation, which strips out fresh food and fuel and is closely watched by the BOJ, rose 2.5% in February, easing slightly from 2.6% in January. Headline inflation eased to 1.3% in February from 1.5% in January, driven mainly by a 9.1% drop in energy costs as electricity and gas subsidies resumed.The BOJ ended its decade-long stimulus in 2024 and raised rates in stages, including in December, as it saw steady progress toward sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target.Kazuo Ueda has signaled the BOJ is ready to keep raising rates if it gains confidence that underlying, demand-driven inflation will stabilise around the 2% target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.87(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.01(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.08 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares dipped to a near-four-month low on Tuesday, as conflicting signals from the ongoing war in the Middle East raised oil prices and dented risk appetite.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.23 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.55 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.35percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices steadied on Tuesday after falling nearly 2% earlier in the session, as investors weighed mixed signals around a potential de-escalation in the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran and its impact on inflation and interest rate expectations.
Spot gold was flat at $4,407 per ounce as of 1224 GMT, after falling to $4,097.99 per ounce in the previous session, its lowest since November 24.U.S. gold futures for April delivery were steady at $4,406.40.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday as a major supply disruption continued, while Iran denied holding talks with the U.S. to end the Gulf conflict, contradicting President Donald Trump’s claim that a deal could be reached soon.
Crude futures plunged more than 10% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a five-day delay to planned strikes on Iran’s power plants, citing “productive” talks with Iranian officials that yielded major points of agreement.
