Market Roundup
• German CPI (MoM) (May)-0.2%, -0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
• German CPI (YoY) (May) 2.6%, 2.6% forecast, 2.9% previous
• UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr) 0.4%, -0.2% forecast, 1.2% previous
• UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Apr) 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous
• UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Apr) -13.05B, -15.20B previous
• UK Trade Balance (Apr) -26.05B, -22.50B forecast, -27.22B previous
• UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
• German HICP (MoM) (May) -0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
• German HICP (YoY) (May) 2.7%, 2.7% forecast, 2.9% previous
• UK Construction Output (MoM) (Apr) 0.1%, -0.7% forecast, 1.5% previous
• UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
• UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Apr) 1.0%, 0.4% forecast, 1.2% previous
• U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Apr) -1.0%, -1.7% forecast, -0.3% previous
• UK GDP (YoY) (Apr) 1.2%, 1.3% forecast, 1.2% previous
• UK Index of Services 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous
•Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Apr) 183.9K, 176.5K previous
•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jun) 4.6%, 4.9% forecast, 4.8%previous
•US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jun) 49.3, 44.3forecast, 44.1previous
•US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jun) 3.4%, 3.8%forecast, 3.9%previous
•US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun) 48.9, 46.1forecast, 44.8 previous
•US Michigan Current Conditions (Jun) 48.4, 46.2forecast, 45.8previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 431 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 563 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against dollar on Friday as renewed hopes of peace in the Middle East sent oil prices lower and lifted sentiment. Oil prices fell over 2% after the news that a memorandum between the United States and Iran to halt the war in the Gulf could be signed as soon as Sunday.Data this week showed U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in May, while consumer inflation jumped above 4%.Attention is also turning to the Federal Reserve's June 16-17 policy meeting, the first to be chaired by Kevin Warsh, which the market expects to hold rates steady. Meanwihle, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Friday that the ECB will keep all options open for its July meeting and will be ready to act again if necessary. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1593(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1612(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1517(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1431(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Friday as traders awaited confirmation that a ceasefire deal in the Middle East could be imminent.U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday the U.S. and Iran could sign a peace deal as soon as this weekend that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude slid 3.4% to $87.33 a barrel on Friday.Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency said on Friday the memorandum, which contained U.S. commitments to lift sanctions and its naval blockade, still requires final approval.Investors have tended to buy the safe-haven dollar when tensions in the Iran war flare, and sell it in favour of riskier assets such as stocks when peace talks appear to make progress.Data on Thursday showed U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in May, ahead of Kevin Warsh's first rate-setting meeting as chair of the Federal Reserve next week.Traders expect the Fed to keep rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, but see a greater than 50% chance of a hike by year-end.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3424(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3493(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3355(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3334(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar initially dipped but recovered some ground on Friday as investors assess U.S.–Iran peace developments.Markets showed signs of fatigue as the initial relief rally lost momentum, with traders questioning whether diplomatic progress would translate into a firm, near-term agreement.Sentiment had initially been supported by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who signalled renewed optimism around a potential peace agreement after pausing planned military action against Iran.Attention now shifts to the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting due on Tuesday, where the central bank is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%. The decision will be closely monitored for any forward guidance on inflation and the timing of potential future policy adjustments. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7170(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7189(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7027(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7000(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar gained traction on Friday as yen weakened ahead of Bank of Japan's policy meeting next week.The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to a 31-year high next week and signal further tightening, remaining focused on inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict despite the governor's absence.The move would align the BOJ with other central banks tightening policy, including the European Central Bank, which delivered a widely expected rate hike on Thursday.The hike would be the first since December, marking a shift away from the BOJ’s cautious stance and the remaining legacy of its earlier radical stimulus, as it moves toward a more conventional focus on fighting inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.85(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 161.06(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.68(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 159.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares were on track to log their best day in a month on Friday, with all major indexes gaining more than 1%, as renewed hopes of peace in the Middle East sent oil prices lower and lifted sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.61 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.70 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.88 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell nearly 3% on Friday to a near two-month low after U.S. President Donald Trump called off new strikes on Iran, easing concerns over a broader conflict following earlier tit-for-tat attacks.
Brent futures were down $2.27, or 2.5%, at $88.11 a barrel by 1322 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $2.47, or 2.8%, to $85.24. Both contracts were at their lowest since April 17.
Gold headed for a second straight weekly loss on Friday as expectations of higher interest rates weighed on the non-yielding metal ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
Spot gold declined 0.2% at $4,205.39 per ounce as of 1323 GMT, and was down 2.9% so far for the week.
