Market Roundup
• French Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar): 1.0%, 0.5% forecast, -0.9% previous.
•HCOB Spain Services PMI (Apr): 47.9, 51.9 forecast, 53.3 previous.
•S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 51.6, 50.8 previous.
•HCOB Italy Services PMI (Apr): 49.8, 47.9 forecast, 48.8 previous.
•HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Apr): 50.5, 49.2 previous.
•HCOB France Services PMI (Apr): 46.5, 46.5 forecast, 48.8 previous.
•HCOB France Composite PMI (Apr): 47.6, 47.6 forecast, 48.8 previous.
•HCOB Germany Services PMI (Apr): 46.9, 46.9 forecast, 50.9 previous.
•HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Apr): 48.4, 48.3 forecast, 51.9 previous.
•HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Apr): 47.6, 47.4 forecast, 50.2 previous.
•HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Apr): 48.8, 48.6 forecast, 50.7 previous.
•Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar): 3.7%, 1.6% previous.
•Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar): 0.8%, -0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous.
•S&P UK Global Composite PMI (Apr): 52.6, 52.0 forecast, 50.3 previous.
•S&P UK Global Services PMI (Apr): 52.7, 52.0 forecast, 50.5 previous.
•US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr): 109K, 118K forecast, 61K previous.
•Canada Ivey PMI (Apr): 57.7, 49.9 forecast, 49.7 previous.
•Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Apr): 61.5, 56.5 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•16:30 ECB's Lane Speaks
•21:15 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed against dollar on Wednesday as dollar weakened after the U.S. signalled it may be nearing a deal with Iran. On Tuesday, Trump unexpectedly said he would briefly pause an operation to help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress toward a comprehensive agreement with Iran, without giving details on the agreement. There was no immediate reaction from Tehran.The White House did not immediately reply to a request for comment on what progress had been made, or how long the pause would last.U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other senior administration officials said earlier on Tuesday that Iran could not be allowed to control traffic through the strait. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1798(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1827(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1708(50%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1632(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound firmed on Wednesday as dollar dipped after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated a possible peace deal may be reached to end the war with Iran. On Tuesday, Trump unexpectedly said he would briefly pause an operation to help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress toward a comprehensive agreement with Iran, without giving details on the agreement. There was no immediate reaction from Tehran. The markets are now gearing up for non-farm payrolls release later this week, which will serve as a test whether the economy remains resilient enough to keep the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on hold, or whether a softening labour market could revive the case for interest rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3611(Higher BB ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3648(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3530(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3502(50%fib).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar hit new four-year high on Wednesday after the U.S. paused efforts to assist shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate supply disruption concerns. President Trump pointed to progress on a potential peace deal, though Iran’s port blockade remains in place, keeping geopolitical risks elevated. Oil futures moved lower, with Brent crude falling 1.38% as risk sentiment improved on easing Middle East tensions.The Australian dollar could test key resistance in the 0.7252–0.7281 zone if a U.S.–Iran truce gains traction and risk appetite strengthens further.Australia’s March trade balance data is due Thursday, with Reuters consensus expecting a surplus of A$4.1 billion. U.S. April Non-Farm Payrolls will be released Friday, with a Reuters poll consensus forecast of +62K jobs.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7248(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7270(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7120(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7071(SMA20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against yen on Wednesday as the Japanese yen strengthened sharply as markets braced for another intervention. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama earlier in the week warned against speculative moves in foreign exchange, after a brief jolt higher in the yen sparked speculation Tokyo had again intervened to support the currency. There has been no confirmation from Japan that it is buying the yen but officials have been threatening intervention for months.A weak yen is pushing up inflation and living costs in Japan, and officials say the drag on the economy is becoming palpable. But with the currency freely floating, any intervention pits policymakers against traders who have been selling the yen for years, and who soon dialled back its jump on Wednesday.The yen climbed from around 157.8 to the dollar to 155 in a half hour of holiday-thinned trade in the Asia session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.58(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.16(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.18(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares advanced to a two-week high on Wednesday, supported by falling oil prices and improving investor sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled “great progress” toward a comprehensive peace agreement with Iran.
At GMT (14:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 2.19 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 2.35 percent, France’s CAC was up by 3.14 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices dropped on Wednesday after a report showed that the United States and Iran are closing in on an agreement to end the war in the Gulf.
Brent crude , the global benchmark, plunged to just below $100 per barrel, its lowest in two weeks, given the importance of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent was last trading at $103.25, down 6% on the day.
Gold prices hit more than a one-week high on Wednesday following reports that the U.S. and Iran may be nearing a peace deal, cooling fears of higher inflation and an extended period of elevated interest rates.
Spot gold was up 2.7% to $4,678.95 per ounce by 8:50 a.m. EDT (1250 GMT), after hitting its highest level since April 27 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures rose 2.7% to $4,690.20.
