Market Roundup
• Swiss PPI (YoY) (Sep) -1.3% -1.2% previous
• Swiss PPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.1%, 0.1%forecast, 0.2% previous
•Finish CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.30% , -0.50% previous
•Finish CPI (YoY) (Sep) 0.8%,1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.746%
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.167% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.016% previous
•15:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Sep) 3.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 19:00 Fed Waller Speaks
• 21:00 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The Euro dipped against dollar on Monday as investors awaited fresh catalyst for further movement. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates on Thursday, with over 90% of economists polled predicting a 25-basis-point reduction to 3.25% after September's inflation dipped below 2%; most expect another 25 bpscut in December. The tone of the monetary policy statement and press conference will be key for expectations. The euro zone's data highlights are final September HICP,August trade and industrial production, and the German ZEW survey. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0961(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0900(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0880 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound held near a one-month low against the dollar on Monday ahead of wage growth and inflation data this week that could help shape the Bank of England's next move at its policy review meeting next month. Expectations that sticky inflation would keep the BoE on a gradual interest rate cut path relative to its peers - the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank had underpinned the pound's outperformance this year. Money markets currently see an 85% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the BoE's November policy meeting, and are evenly split about another cut by the end of the year.Money markets currently see an 85% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the BoE's November policy meeting, and are evenly split about another cut by the end of the year.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3127(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3188(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3060(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3000(Psychological level).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dipped on Monday after Beijing's fiscal stimulus briefing lacked details and disappointed investors, although a tepid response in Chinese markets likely limited the downside. The much-anticipated briefing from China's Ministry of Finance on Saturday failed to unveil the specific scale of the expected fiscal stimulus, although the minister did pledge to significantly increase debt to help the economy. The Antipodean currencies are often traded as liquid proxies for the Chinese yuan as Beijing is the top trading partner of Australia and New Zealand. The kiwi dollar slipped 0.3% to $0.6078, after losing 0.8% last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Monday as investors focussed on U.S. Federal Reserve officials' comments for further rate cut cues. Investors will watch out for comments from Fed officials this week for more hints on the upcoming rate cuts, along with U.S. retail sales data.Data on Friday showed unchanged U.S. producer prices last month, cementing the case for quarter-point U.S. interest-rate cuts at upcoming Fed policy meetings. Traders see a roughly 90% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, and 10% chance of it leaving rates unchanged. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.49(23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.61(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 147.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks were little changed on Monday after China's stimulus plans failed to inspire confidence among investors, who focussed on the earnings season and the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy meeting later this week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.02 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.39 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.30 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices steadied near one-week highs on Monday amid a risk-off mood sentiment driven by an underwhelming China fiscal stimulus, while investors awaited comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials for hints on its interest rate outlook.
Spot gold edged lower 0.1% at $2,652.31 per ounce by 1155 GMT, after hitting its highest since Oct. 4 at $2,666.72 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $2,669.20.
Oil prices declined over 2% on Monday, wiping out all of last week's gains, as China's stimulus plans failed to inspire investor confidence and the country's oil imports fell for the fifth month, stoking concern about fuel demand.
.Brent crude futures were down $1.84, or 2.3%, at $77.20 per barrel by 1100 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.87, or 2.47%, to $73.69 per barrel. Brent gained 99 cents last week, while WTI climbed $1.18.
