Market Roundup
• EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Jan): 3.3%, 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
• EU Loans to Non Financial Corporations (Jan) 2.8% forecast, 3.0% previous
• EU M3 Money Supply (Jan) 17,344.7B forecast, 17,230.7B previous
• EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Jan) 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
• EU Selling Price Expectations (Feb) 11.5% previous, 10.3% forecast
• EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Feb) 25.8% previous, 24.2% forecast
• EU Industrial Sentiment (Feb) -7.1 -6.1 forecast, -6.8 previous
• EU Business and Consumer Survey (Feb) 98.3 99.8 forecast, 99.3 previous
• EU Services Sentiment (Feb) 5.0 7.5 forecast, 7.2 previous
• EU Consumer Confidence (Feb) -12.2 -12.2 forecast, -12.4 previous
• EU Business Climate (Feb) -0.36 -0.38 previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 212K, 217K forecast, 208K previous
• Canada Current Account (Q4): -0.7B, -8.2B forecast, -5.3B previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,833K, 1,860K forecast, 1,864K previous
• Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Dec): 1.94%, 2.30% previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 220.25K, 219.50K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•16:00 US KC Fed Composite Index (Feb) 0 previous
•16:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) -2 previous
•16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 3.625% previous
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 3.630% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Thursday but gains were limited as investors remained cautious amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy and U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that tariffs for some countries could rise to 15% or more from the newly imposed 10%, though he did not specify any trading partners. Meanwhile, Iran and the U.S. were set to hold another round of nuclear talks in Geneva aimed at easing tensions and preventing potential U.S. military action. Investors also awaited weekly U.S. jobless claims data for further guidance on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped on Thursday as investors awaited a local election in Manchester, which could provide insight into Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s political strength. Political uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment, with the vote in Gorton and Denton in Greater Manchester adding pressure after recent scrutiny of Starmer’s policy reversals and the controversial appointment — and subsequent dismissal — of Labour veteran Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington following allegations linked to Jeffrey Epstein, which he denied. The pound was down 0.13% against the dollar at $1.3541. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3537(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3591(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3487 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3368(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Thursday ahead of the third round of indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, hoping for signals on whether the negotiations could ease geopolitical risks.Iran signalled flexibility in indirect nuclear talks with the U.S. in Geneva on Thursday, held amid rising pressure on Tehran to reach a deal as Washington ramps up its military presence in the Middle East, while mediator Oman held out hope that both nations would make more progress.Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased marginally last week and the unemployment rate appeared to hold steady in February amid a stable labor market.The market continued to expect two rate cuts this year by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7136(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7161(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7053(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Thursday as investors evaluated signals from the Bank of Japan on the rate outlook, while also watching Nvidia’s earnings for clues about AI demand. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.2% to 156.04 per dollar, on track to end a two-day losing streak, after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda kept the possibility of a near-term rate hike open. In an interview with Yomiuri, Ueda said the central bank would review data at its March and April meetings to decide on future rate moves, following reports that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had raised concerns about further monetary tightening during her meeting with the governor. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.48(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.84(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.94 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 154.32 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe’s benchmark index climbed to a record high on Thursday, supported by strong corporate earnings from companies such as Schneider and Indra, while investors also weighed the outlook for artificial intelligence after strong forecasts from chip giant Nvidia.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.01 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.37 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.66 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady as investors awaited the third round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Geneva between United States and Iran, looking for signals on easing geopolitical risks.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $5,165.77 per ounce at 9:19 a.m. ET (1419 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery were down 0.8% at $5,182.10.
Oil prices fell after a sharp rise in U.S. crude inventories and weaker physical market signals, as traders also monitored U.S.–Iran talks between United States and Iran.
Brent crude futures were down 95 cents, or 1.3%, at $69.90 a barrel by 1351 GMT. WTI futures lost $1.06, or 1.6%, to $64.36.
