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Market Roundup
•EU Industrial Sentiment (Aug) -5.3, -6.1 previous
•EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Aug) 33.0, 30.4 previous
•EU Business and Consumer Survey (Aug) 98.4, 97.1 previous
•EU Selling Price Expectations (Aug) 16.4, 17.8 previous
•EU Business Climate (Aug) -0.22, -0.19 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (Aug) -15.5, -15.9 previous
•EU Services Sentiment (Aug) 5.8, 5.1 previous
• Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.8%, 0.1% previous
•Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q2) 3.3%, 0.3% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Jun) 0.3%, 0.3% previous
•Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q2) 2.50%, 1.20% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Jul) 0.0%, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic data (GMT)
•14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug) 4.3% forecast, 4.2% previous
•14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug) 3.3% forecast, 3.3% previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 51.0 forecast, 55.2 previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Aug) 50.6 forecast, 55.4 previous
•14:00 US Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a. -862.00K previous
•14:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Aug) 51.8 forecast, 54.8 previous
•14:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Jun) -1.36B previous
•14:00 Canada Budget Balance (Jun) -0.31B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Friday as investors looked ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.Warsh's debut speech in Wyoming is slated for 1400 GMT. Inflation has remained persistently above 2%, leading traders to price in at least one 25 basis point interest rate hike this year and supporting the dollar in recent days.Many in markets would welcome any comments on monetary policy and the U.S. Treasury's effort to bring down long-term borrowing costs during a period of volatility in bond markets.The euro were a touch softer against the greenback, last at $1.1646. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1680(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1734(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1636(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1585(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased against the dollar on Friday as expectations for a Bank of England interest rate hike this year receded, ahead of a key U.S. Federal Reserve symposium at Jackson Hole.This week's losses were largely driven by dollar strength as the U.S. currency recouped some losses and as investors cut some of their bets for an interest rate hike by the BoE this year, even as the war in the Middle East has kept energy prices elevated.Traders are currently pricing in about 25 basis points of rate hikes by December, down from the 30 bps they were wagering more than a week ago. Markets were also awaiting any clues on fiscal plans from Britain's new Andy Burnham-led government as parliament re-convenes next week.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3685(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3716(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3624(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3531(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hits three-month peak on Friday as Australian dollar remained bid ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s closely watched speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.The Aussie has received support from growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia could resume its tightening cycle.The RBA kept its cash rate at 4.35% in August, but its meeting minutes showed policymakers were divided over whether another increase was warranted, with several members highlighting upside risks to inflation.Meanwhile, attention is firmly focused on Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, which could provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and influence the U.S. dollar.Markets are particularly sensitive to any comments on persistent inflation and the path of interest rates.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7178(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7201(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7093 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07054(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Friday as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speech at Jackson Hole.Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s debut speech at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming is scheduled for 1400 GMT on Friday.Investors are particularly focused on his views on inflation, interest rates and the Fed’s policy outlook, with his remarks expected to provide greater clarity ahead of the September policy meeting.Annual core inflation in Tokyo accelerated to 1.8% in August from 1.7% in July, marking a third straight month of increases and exceeding expectations. Core consumer prices in Tokyo rose 1.8% in August from a year earlier, government data showed, slightly above market forecasts for a 1.7% gain and creeping near the BOJ's 2% target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.21(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.60(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 156.16 (Daily low).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Friday, with French stocks rebounding from the previous session’s sell-off, as investors turned their attention to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for clues on the U.S. interest-rate outlook.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.24 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.50 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.94 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were little changed on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, seeking clues on the central bank’s future interest-rate path.
Spot gold was down 0.02% at $4,600.07 per ounce by 1302 GMT. It had hit a more than three-month high of $4,696.18 on Tuesday, following the U.S. Treasury's announcement of support measures for long-duration bonds.
Oil prices fell on Friday and were on track for a weekly decline as traders weighed improving crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz against the stalemate in U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts.
Oil prices fell on Friday and were on track for a weekly decline as traders weighed improving crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz against the stalemate in U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts.
