Market Roundup
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Feb): 2.3%, 2.2% previous.
• EU CPI, n.s.a (Feb): 100.72, 100.06 previous.
• EU Core CPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.8%, -1.1% previous.
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (MoM) (Feb): 0.7%, -0.8% previous.
• Greece Unemployment Rate (Jan): 7.7%, 7.9% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•21:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 2.200M forecast, 11.400M previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Tuesday as investors weighed the risk of a prolonged Middle East conflict and renewed inflation pressure from surging oil prices. The U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran over the weekend, targeting Tehran and killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran and its proxy Hezbollah responded with retaliatory attacks, drawing the wider Gulf region further into the crisis.In Europe, concerns are mounting that another energy shock could reignite inflation while further weakening already fragile economic growth. With the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping, disruptions in Gulf trade threaten fuel and petroleum supplies that Europe heavily relies on. The resulting uncertainty clouds the outlook for both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1697(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1782(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1529(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1499(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound tumbled to its lowest in three months on Tuesday as the intensifying conflict in the Middle East drove oil prices higher, rekindling inflation fears and prompting traders to trim rate-cut bets.The latest bout of risk aversion piled onto existing pressure on the currency, which has already been weighed down by concerns over the UK's economic outlook and domestic political uncertainty. At her budget update speech, finance minister Rachel Reeves said Britain's economy is forecast to grow by 1.1% this year, citing the latest projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility. The new prediction was weaker than a forecast of 1.4% growth for 2026 in the OBR's previous outlook published in November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3403(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3459(Jan 2nd low).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3248(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3183(Dec 2nd low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower on Tuesday as the deepening conflict in the Middle East rekindled inflation concerns and prompted a flight to safety of dollar.The spike in oil prices has led to traders reassessing expectations of interest rate cuts by global central banks, especially in countries that rely heavily on crude imports.Traders are also viewing the U.S. as a relative refuge due to its greater energy independence, even as the dollar's status as a dependable safe haven has been questioned over the past year. Attention now turns to Australia’s Q4 GDP data due Wednesday, with Reuters polling economists for growth of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 2.2% year-on-year, figures that could shape near-term RBA policy expectations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7030(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7137(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6900(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose on Monday as dollar firmed as investors assessed the implications of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on energy prices and the global economy.Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after rocket attacks, while Iran continued missile and drone strikes on Gulf states. Qatar also halted LNG production, triggering precautionary shutdowns of regional oil and gas facilities. Japan’s Katayama said financial officials are closely monitoring markets with a strong sense of urgency and noted that Japan reached a shared understanding with the U.S. last year regarding potential currency intervention.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda did not mention monetary policy in a speech on Tuesday, a day after BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said market volatility would not prevent a rate increase. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.29(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares tumbled to one-month lows on Tuesday as the global equity selloff intensified, with investors bracing for a prolonged Middle East conflict and renewed inflation pressure from a sharp rise in oil prices.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 3.34 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 4.12 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 3.45 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged lower on Tuesday as a stronger dollar and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts pressured prices, while inflation worries grew amid a potentially prolonged Middle East conflict.
Spot gold was down 5.6% at $5,029.59 an ounce by 1450 GMT. Prices hit an over four-week high in the previous session.
Crude oil benchmarks climbed about 7% on Tuesday, marking a third straight session of gains as the widening U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of supply disruptions from the key Middle East producing region.
Brent crude futures were up $5.70, or 7%, at $83.44 a barrel by 1326 GMT after touching their highest since July 2024 at $85.12.
