Market Roundup
• German GDP (Q4 QoQ): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous.
• German GDP (Q4 YoY): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous.
• GfK German Consumer Climate (Mar): -24.7, -23.0 forecast, -24.2 previous.
• EU CPI (Jan YoY): 1.7%, 1.7% forecast, 1.9% previous
• EU Core CPI (Jan YoY): 2.2%, 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous.
• EU CPI (Jan MoM): -0.6%, -0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous.
• EU Core CPI (Jan MoM): -1.1%, 2.3% forecast, 0.3% previous.
• EU HICP ex Energy and Food (Jan MoM): -0.8%, 2.3% forecast, 0.2% previous.
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (Jan YoY): 2.1%, 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous.
• EU CPI ex Tobacco (Jan MoM): -0.6%, 0.2% previous.
• EU CPI ex Tobacco (Jan YoY): 1.6%, 1.9% previous.
• EU CPI, n.s.a (Jan): 100.05, 100.08 forecast, 129.54 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.800M forecast,-9.014M previous.
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -1.095M previous.
•15:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) 0.077M previous.
•15:30 US Gasoline Production 0.290M previous.
•15:30 US Gasoline Inventories -3.213M previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 14:30 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Wednesday as uncertainty over U.S. tariffs pressured the dollar.The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday struck down Trump's emergency tariffs, prompting the president to pledge a new 15% levy on U.S. imports from all countries. The United States began collecting a temporary 10% global import tariff on Tuesday, but Washington was working to raise it to 15%, a White House official said, sowing confusion over Trump's tariff policies after the Supreme Court's defeat last week.Meanwhile, two U.S. Federal Reserve officials signaled no near-term appetite to change the setting of central bank interest rate policy. Markets currently expect three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound firmed on Wednesday as dollar weakened as investors grappled with ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy. Concerns that fresh trade measures could weigh on global growth have kept the greenback under pressure.Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union address to a joint session of United States Congress. While no major new policy measures were announced .Investors remain cautious, wary that any unexpected policy signals could inject fresh volatility into currency markets.Sterling found additional support after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey struck a cautious tone on rate cuts, reinforcing the view that policy easing may not be imminent. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3537(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3591(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3487 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3368(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Wednesday as hotter-than-expected inflation data fueled expectations of additional interest rate hikes this year.January consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month, keeping annual inflation at 3.8%, partly driven by higher housing and healthcare costs.The key trimmed mean core inflation gauge rose 0.3% in the month, lifting the annual rate to 3.4% — above forecasts and the highest since the third quarter of 2024.That marked a seventh consecutive month above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2%–3% target range, heightening the risk of a strong inflation outcome for the March quarter overall.RBA Governor Michele Bullock will have a chance to offer her own reaction to the January CPI when appearing at a Melbourne University event later on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed on Wednesday as yen dipped after a report said that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had told the central bank chief she had reservations about future rate hikes. The report signals potential friction over monetary policy that could complicate the BOJ's plan to steadily raise rates and rekindle currency market concerns that Takaichi wants to run the economy hot with low interest rates and high government spending.The yen has been sliding for years thanks to Japan's low interest rates and has been under pressure since Takaichi came to power in October on concerns that she would further strain a stretched national budget. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.10(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.23(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.98 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.82 (Feb 18th low).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Wednesday, supported by gains in financials after HSBC raised its lending target, while concerns over AI-driven business disruption eased.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.93 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.49 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.41 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Wednesday as a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand, driven by U.S. tariff uncertainty and U.S.-Iran tensions, supported the metal..
Spot gold rose 0.8% to $5,190.99 per ounce, as of 0841 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 0.7% at $5,210.40.
Oil prices held near seven-month highs on Wednesday as investors weighed the risk that a potential U.S.–Iran military conflict could disrupt crude supply, even as talks between the two sides are due to take place.
Brent futures were up 63 cents at $71.40 a barrel at 1307 GMT. WTI futures gained 56 cents to $66.19.
