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Market Roundup
• German Trade Balance (Aug) 19.5B, 19.0B forecast, 21.6B previous
• German Exports (MoM) (Aug) -0.8%, 0.8% forecast, -0.5% previous
• German Imports (MoM) (Aug) 0.9%, 2.8% forecast, -5.5% previous
• Irish HICP (MoM) (Sep) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
• Irish CPI (YoY) (Sep) 4.1%, 3.7% previous
• Irish CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.2%, 0.7% previous
• Irish HICP (YoY) (Sep) 3.8%, 3.9% forecast, 3.4% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims (Oct) 197K, 200K forecast, 199K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep) 1,716K, 1,710K forecast, 1,699K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. (Oct) 198.00K, 200.50K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)3.7% forecast, 3.7% previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 3.890% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 3.990% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro traded near 17-month low as higher oil prices and rising euro zone bond yields have weighed on the euro.The widening gap in yields between German bonds and those of more indebted countries in the euro zone, such as France and Italy, has pushed the euro to its lowest level since May last year.French government bonds have come under particular selling pressure due to worries about France's deteriorating fiscal situation ahead of next year's presidential election. The euro EUR= was down 0.2% on Thursday at $1.1174, close to its lowest level in 17 months. European Central Bank policymaker Pierre Wunsch pushed back on a proposal to increase charges on commercial banks, warning that it could hurt the credibility of future central bank operations and might even cross into the realm of fiscal policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1294(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1393(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1188(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1111(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound gained some traction against the dollar on Thursday as investors digested comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.Bailey said governments needed to step up efforts to demonstrate that they can restore the health of their public finances, as bond markets globally face pressure from high borrowing levels and persistent inflation risks.He said credible commitments to reduce debt could help ease demands from investors for higher returns on government bonds during periods of economic and geopolitical shocks, such as the outbreak of the Iran war.Bailey also stressed that central banks must remain focused on their mandate to bring inflation back under control. In his speech, he warned that bond markets had become increasingly fragile, leaving them more vulnerable to sharp moves during periods of heightened uncertainty.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3297(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3339(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3165(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3111 (Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher against dollar on Thursday as renewed jitters in global bond markets weighed on investor sentiment and reduced demand for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar.The RBA's September meeting minutes, due on Tuesday, will be closely scrutinized for clues about the central bank's future policy path.Traders will focus on policymakers’ assessment of inflation, labour-market conditions and the risks posed by higher energy prices, particularly following the RBA’s recent tightening cycle.Investors will focus on September employment data next week for further guidance on the outlook, following an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to a five-year high of 4.6% in August..Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6991(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7063(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6937 (Oct 5th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6900(23.6% fib)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar eased slightly against the yen on Thurday after data released showed Japan's current account surplus widened in August.Japan's current account surplus stood at 4.062 trillion yen ($25.7 billion) in August, higher than economists' median forecast for a surplus of 3.19 trillion yen.Meanwhile, BoJ policymaker Ayano Sato, one of the dissenters to September’s rate hike, said this week that interest rates should be raised gradually in several stages, adding to expectations of another rate increase.The BOJ raised its key rate to a 31-year high last month, with its governor signalling the central bank had entered a phase focused on preventing underlying inflation from overshooting its target, raising the prospect of tighter policy.At the October 29-30 meeting, the BOJ will release fresh quarterly growth and inflation forecasts that will be closely watched by markets for clues on the next rate-hike timing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.48(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.46(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.13(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Thursday, with bank stocks sliding to their lowest level in more than three months, as a fresh selloff in bonds and elevated oil prices fueled concerns that persistent inflation could weigh on economic growth.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.15 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.64percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.11 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged up on Thursday after hitting a two-month low in the previous session, as investors assessed the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's September meeting for clues on its interest rate trajectory.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,122.12 per ounce by 1128 GMT, having touched its lowest level since August 5 on Wednesday as a firmer dollar and higher US Treasury yields weighed.
Oil prices jumped on Thursday on persistent worries about supply from the Middle East amid an increase in attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, while the US cut output as a hurricane menaced offshore production.
Brent crude futures were up $4.55, or 4.54%, at $104.75 a barrel by 1205 GMT — the highest in over a week. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $4, or 4.53%, to $92.28, its highest since October 2. Both contracts rose over $5 a barrel earlier in the session.
