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Market Roundup
•US Trade Balance (Aug) -105.60B, -100.80B forecast, -92.80B previous
•US Exports (Aug) 315.20B, 310.70B previous
•US Imports (Aug) 420.80B, 399.30B previous
•Canada Trade Balance (Aug) 4.20B, 1.50B forecast, 0.79B previous
•Canada Imports (Aug) 73.71B, 75.24B previous
•Canada Exports (Aug) 77.91B, 76.03B previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 8.6%, 8.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (Aug) 118.3 forecast, 117.7 previous
•05:00 Japan Coincident Indicator (Aug) 1.7% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Aug) 1.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro rebounded on Tuesday as a pullback in French government bond yields eased concerns over stress in euro zone debt markets.Global bond yields have risen in recent weeks amid expectations of sharp central-bank rate hikes as higher energy prices linked to the Iran war fuel inflation, while concerns over government finances have added pressure. French debt has come under particular strain as politicians struggle to rein in the budget deficit ahead of the divisive 2027 election.The euro was also pressured by Spain’s snap election announcement. The currency rose 0.35% to $1.126, on track for its biggest daily gain since August 19, after falling to $1.116 on Monday, its lowest since May 2025, following a more than 1% decline last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1294(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1393(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1188(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1111(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound rebounded against dollar on Tuesday as investors digested comments from Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann.Mann warned that inflation has become embedded in the UK economy and could become more entrenched as wage negotiations intensify early next year. She was particularly concerned that inflation could rise to around 4% near the turn of the year, when employers typically negotiate annual pay increases, potentially reinforcing wage pressures and making price growth more persistent. The BoE has kept interest rates unchanged since the outbreak of the Iran war, unlike the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve. However, markets are now pricing in a potential rate move at the BoE’s November meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3297(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3339(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3165(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3111 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD : The Canadian dollar strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday after data showed Canada’s trade surplus widened more than expected, while the greenback retreated from recent broad-based gains.Canada’s trade surplus rose to C$4.2 billion in August from C$787 million in July, well above economists’ forecast of C$1.55 billion. Exporters accelerated shipments to the US ahead of President Donald Trump’s new tariffs.The US dollar weakened against major currencies as falling French government bond yields eased concerns over euro zone debt markets, while lower oil prices also weighed on the greenback.US crude futures fell 0.3% to $89.19 a barrel as increased Middle Eastern exports and a G7 agreement to release emergency diesel and crude stockpiles eased supply concerns.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4293 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4347 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4186 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4091 (50%fib).
USD /JPY : The US dollar edged higher against the yen on Tuesday as investors weighed the still-wide US-Japan yield differential. The spread continues to favor the dollar and support USD/JPY near the upper end of its recent range.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said it was increasingly important to keep underlying inflation anchored around the BOJ’s 2% target, signaling that the central bank remains prepared to raise rates further if needed. He also warned that inflation could overshoot the target amid price pressures from the US-Israel war with Iran, strong AI-related demand and the weak yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.92(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.90(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.72(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Tuesday, supported by broad-based gains across sectors as euro zone bond yields eased after a recent rally driven by fiscal and inflation concerns.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.42 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.77 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.40 percent.
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday as oil prices stabilized and Treasury yields eased, providing relief from recent investor concerns and shifting focus toward the upcoming third-quarter earnings season.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.49% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.58 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.45% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by a pause in the US Treasury yield's rally and a weaker dollar, while investors awaited the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting for fresh clues on its monetary policy outlook.
Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,168.33 per ounce by 02:12 p.m. EDT (1812 GMT). US gold futures for December delivery settled 0.7% higher at $4,187.10.
Oil prices fell about $2 on Monday as rising Middle East crude exports and a G7 pledge to boost supplies eased supply concerns, though losses were limited by fears of further disruptions linked to the US-Iran war.
Brent crude futures settled $1.93, or 1.89%, lower at $100.32 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude lost $1.68, or 1.84%, at $89.43.
